{"id":5539,"date":"2016-12-15T09:00:25","date_gmt":"2016-12-15T14:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.luckygunner.com\/lounge\/?p=5539"},"modified":"2021-08-03T09:24:41","modified_gmt":"2021-08-03T13:24:41","slug":"decision-making-stress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.luckygunner.com\/lounge\/decision-making-stress\/","title":{"rendered":"Decision Making Under Stress"},"content":{"rendered":"

A few weeks ago, I described\u00a0the basics of the OODA Loop<\/a> — Observe, Orient, Decide, Act — and how it is applicable to the lawfully armed citizen. Following that,\u00a0I took\u00a0a more detailed look at the Observe<\/a> and Orient<\/a> steps, which now brings us to Decide. Decision making under extreme stress is one of the most complicated tasks a person might have to do. In a life and death situation, time pressure is immense. Your brain is engaged in multiple tasks at once, including the other steps in the\u00a0OODA Loop.<\/p>

Due to this large demand on brain power, we are wired for efficiency — to quickly sift through possible courses of action, and discard those that have an unacceptably high chance of failure or are too difficult to implement. We can then select the first plan that comes to mind that is both able to be put into action and has an acceptable chance of success. This \u201cfirst acceptable plan\u201d decision making is quite different than when we have the luxury of time, the ability to think through the likely consequences, and can use \u201cbest plan\u201d decision making. Fortunately, through training and experience, we can build up a mental library of those \u201cbest plans\u201d in our brains to select as a \u201cfirst acceptable plan\u201d when under stress.<\/p>

Mental Simulation<\/strong><\/h2>

In stressful decision making, one of the most important assets we have for taking quick and effective action is prior planning. There are several ways to stock our brains with these plans, including training and experience both personally or vicariously through watching others accomplish the desired task. One method in particular\u00a0that we can use daily is known as mental simulation.<\/span><\/p>

Mental simulation is creating a scenario, deciding a goal, and then mentally running through various possible decisions. We then use our knowledge and expertise to predict the outcomes of each decision to see if they lead to the desired goal. An example is preparing to ask your boss for a raise. You\u2019ll plan what you want to say, use your knowledge of your boss\u2019s personality, and then think of which approach is most likely to succeed in the goal of getting the desired raise. You\u2019ll think of likely questions your boss will ask and pre-plan answers so that you are prepared for the meeting with the best plan to get the raise you desire. If we routinely engage in mental simulation for defensive encounters, we will have the advantage of preparation, have multiple pre-set plans in our subconscious, and be able to react to threats more quickly.<\/p>

Before we dive into the benefits of mental simulation, let\u2019s look at a couple of potential downsides. If you lack experience in the arena you are simulating, your simulations may not be accurate. The majority of Americans are not used to violent conflict. They have not been in a fist fight as an adult, they’ve never been the victim of violent crime, and they have had\u00a0limited first-hand exposure to violent criminals. As such, a lot of \u201cI\u2019ll just\u2026\u201d plans are developed. The \u201cI\u2019ll just\u2026\u201d plan is usually based more on fantasy and Hollywood depictions rather than true criminal behavior and actual violent encounters. \u201cI\u2019ll just\u2026\u201d plans are often one-size-fits-all with no secondary option. One example of an \u201cI\u2019ll just\u2026\u201d plan is sometimes used to justify carrying a pistol with an\u00a0empty chamber. \u201cI\u2019ll just rack the pistol as I draw.\u201d What if you\u2019re injured? What if you\u2019re actively being held down and kicked? \u201cI\u2019ll just\u2026\u201d plans often don\u2019t survive first contact.<\/p>

The most effective way to gain a baseline of knowledge for effective mental simulation is through quality training and engaging in realistic force on force training, such as the ECQC<\/a> class offered by Craig \u201cSouthNarc\u201d Douglas<\/a>. \u00a0In Craig\u2019s own words, \u201c\u2026it covers criminal behavior and managing unknown contacts. \u00a0Plus… force on force, so guys find out quickly what works and what doesn’t.\u201d<\/p>

Following that, experiences can be gained vicariously by methods such as reviewing surveillance videos of real crimes and fights, which are readily available from many sources online. \u00a0Other than gaining actual experience, training and vicarious experience is the best way to help you gain that required baseline and see potential pitfalls in your plans so you do not have to rely on \u201cI\u2019ll just\u2026\u201d.<\/p>

The second potential downside to mental simulation is becoming too attached to the simulation and failing to adapt when real world information tells you it\u2019s not working. One method to combat this is to also simulate ways that your primary plan could fail, and then create secondary plans as a\u00a0backup. Seeking quality training, engaging in realistic force on force training, and even reviewing surveillance videos of real crimes, which are readily available online, can help you gain that required baseline and see potential pitfalls in your plans so you do not have to rely on \u201cI\u2019ll just\u2026\u201d.<\/p>

Subconscious Decision-making<\/strong><\/h2>

Now, let\u2019s look at why it\u2019s important to move as much decision-making as possible to the subconscious mind. Our conscious mind, our \u201cworking memory\u201d, is very limited. Experts disagree on the exact number, but 5 to 7 seems to be the average number of items the working memory can retain at one time. Note that \u201citem\u201d is not a unit of measurement, and the amount of data you can hold within a given item varies by expertise.<\/span><\/p>

Read this sequence of numbers, walk away from the article, then try to write them down 30 seconds from now in any order: 1, 15, 97, 23, 63, 91, 54.<\/p>

Now do the same thing with this string of numbers: 40, 9, 45, 357, 308, 762, 223.<\/p>

I will bet the second string was significantly easier for you to recall. Both contained 7 items, but the second string contained 17 characters while the first had only 13. The difference is the second string is, of course, numbers commonly related to firearms, information you already know. You are able to store more information in an item by what is known as chunking, putting a chunk of data in each item. You may have \u201cchunked\u201d it as something like \u201ccommon service pistol calibers\u201d and \u201ccommon rifle calibers\u201d. Someone with no firearms knowledge would have no advantage with the second string. In short, you increased your available working memory due to expertise by making each available chunk hold more information.<\/p>

\"\"<\/a><\/p>

We can do the same thing with tactics and response to a criminal assault. If I have a pre-set plan to an attempted mugging while I\u2019m pumping gas, that response is chunked into one item. I then have the rest of my working memory to contain my real time observations, to evaluate if my plan is working, and to adjust on the fly (cycling through the OODA loop). I am both faster in my response and less likely to be overwhelmed mentally.<\/p>

To take advantage of this, we simply need to run through mental simulations while doing our daily activities. While you\u2019re pumping gas and you see a car pulling into the lane next to you, play \u201cwhat if\u201d. What if\u2026the occupant of the car comes over to me begging for gas money. What if that person keeps closing the distance with me even after I tell them I don\u2019t carry cash and cannot help them? What if that person displays a pistol in their waistband and announces a robbery? Then, if the car actually pulls up and it\u2019s just someone else pumping gas, you can look for your next \u201cwhat if\u201d. If the car pulls up and your mental scenario goes down, you aren\u2019t surprised, you\u2019ve got a plan, and you\u2019re already a step ahead. If you do this routinely these pre-set plans become \u201cchunks\u201d subconsciously. You\u2019ll build a repertoire of responses to various threats.<\/p>

A \u201cchunk\u201d should contain the trigger for a given response and then the entirety of the response. This entirety is simply the plan we intend to follow, realizing that the real world is fluid and we may need to adapt our plan as things change around us. The efficiency and effectiveness of this approach can easily be seen in first aid training. \u201cIf someone appears to be choking, ask if they are ok or need help. If they indicate they do need help or cannot respond, perform the Heimlich Maneuver.\u201d Note the Heimlich is a chunk for someone trained in its use, and you do not need to explain each individual step. Someone practiced at the Heimlich will not even think about each step, they will simply think \u201cperform the Heimlich\u201d and then do so.<\/p>

Decision Points<\/strong><\/h2>

So, what should a chunk for self-defense look like? Let\u2019s revisit the gas station scenario. There are several triggers and possible decision points. Things you should consider would include:<\/p>